Pitchers ranked by the Carson Palmquist Model score: who has more Stuff+ in his arm than his current arsenal shows, and what it would take to get it. Columns read left to right: the pitcher today, the pitch-usage lever, the pitch-addition lever, the regression forecast, the market. Sort any column; the row under the headers filters each column (text columns match text, numeric columns take >5, <=100 or 3..8); click a row for the per-pitch detail.
Stuff+ / Loc+ / Pit+ are FanGraphs. CPM score = z(development engine) + z(actionable), scored across all pitchers. Proj ΔStf+ = next-season Stuff+ change: regression + ½·mix + add EV + drop. Mix ΔStf+ = arsenal gain from re-weighting usage toward better pitches, optimized separately against left- and right-handed batters on platoon-adjusted projected grades with empirical per-side limits; More vs LHH / RHH is the pitch that gains share on each side and the plans show the moves. Backtest, six as-of seasons 2020–25: the top ten by mix gain raised the recommended pitch 10+ pts 26% of the time and gained +2.4 Stuff+ (+4.1 beyond mean reversion) when they did; on a per-side label the top ten acted on at least one side 42% of the time. Open roles = ride / run / cut / slider / sweep / curve / offspeed roles he throws under 5%; Add is the best reachable family in an open role, Prec Stf+ what his 80 nearest arms grade on it, Gain = 0.165 × (Prec Stf+ − 1.5 − Stuff+)⁺, EV = P(add) × Gain. Families are Statcast labels, sweeper (ST) distinct from gyro slider (SL). Mean reversion = what any pitcher at his Stuff+ does next season on average (a line fit on every prior pair, about a fifth of the distance back to 100); Surplus = what his pitch characteristics add to that; Regression ΔStf+ = their sum, the lever-free forecast that anchors Proj ΔStf+.
Data: Statcast 2020–2026 (Chamberlain Pitch Leaderboard v8 extract + pybaseball backfill), Baseball Savant spin-direction leaderboard, FanGraphs Stuff+/Location+/Pitching+ and standard leaderboards. Method and backtests: docs/CARSON-PALMQUIST-MODEL.md, docs/BACKTEST-4WAY.md, docs/MIX-ACTION-BY-RANK.md, docs/ADD-ACTION-BY-RANK.md at github.com/vincepipitone/baseball-slot-sim.